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Peter H. Pauly

Peter H. Pauly

Peter H. Pauly

Professor Emeritus of Economics


Dipl. - Vw., Dr.rer.pol., University of Hamburg




Peter Pauly is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and a Research Associate at the Institute for International Business. Peter's research is in the areas of econometrics, macroeconomics, and international economics, with a focus on model-based forecasting techniques and national and global economic modeling. He is co-editor of Economic Modelling and a past editor of the Journal of Forecasting. He is a policy advisor to many national and international organizations.

Academic Positions

  • 1989-Present

    Professor, University of Toronto

  • 1991-1993 1996-1998

    Professor of Policy Modeling, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto

  • 1981-1989

    Associate Professor, University of Pennsylvania

  • 1976-1981

    Assistant Professor, University of Hamburg

  • 1996-Present

    Extraordinary Professor, University of Pretoria

  • 1984

    Visiting Professor, University of Mannheim

  • 1992

    Visiting Scholar, International Monetary Fund

  • 1986

    Visiting Scholar, Bank of Finland

  • 1989, 1992

    Visiting Scholar, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Selected Publications - Papers

  • Motivations for FDI and Domestic Capital Formation

    with Walid Hejazi

    Journal of International Business Studies



    Pages: pp. 282-289

  • The Indian Foreign Exchange Market and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Rupee

    with Ila Patnaik

    Global Business Review


    Pages: pp. 195-216

  • The Determinants of Atmospheric SO2 Concentrations : Reconsidering the Environmental Kuznets Curve

    with R.K. Kaufmann, B. Davidsdottir, and S. Garnham

    Journal of Environmental Economics and Management



    Pages: pp. 209-220

  • The Effects of NAFTA on the Environment

    with R. Kaufmann and J. Sweitzer

    The Energy Journal



    Pages: pp. 217-240

  • Planning Horizon and Price Behaviour

    with K.S. Lai




    Pages: pp. 53-62

  • Random Walk or Bandwagon: Some Evidence form Foreign Exchanges

    with K.S. Lai

    Applied Economics



    Pages: pp. 673-700

  • The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Combination

    with F.X. Diebold

    International Journal of Forecasting



    Pages: pp. 503-508

  • Endogenous Risk in a Portfolio Balance Rational Expectations Model of the DM$ Exchange Rate

    with F.X. Diebold

    European Economic Review



    Pages: pp. 25-53

  • Structural Change and the Combination of Forecasts

    with F.X. Diebold

    Journal of Forecasting



    Pages: pp. 21-40

Selected Publications - Books and Chapters

  • Global Economic Modeling

    Singapore : World Scientific Publ.


  • Reflections on Global Modeling: the State of the Art

    in: P. Pauly (ed.), Global Economic Modeling (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.)


  • How Do Regional Traden Agreements Affect Intra-Regional and Inter-Regional FDI

    in: L. Eden and W. Dobson (eds.), Governance, Multinationals, and Growth, Cheltenham : E. Elgar


  • Macroeconometric Models and the European Economic Union

    with S.G. Hall and U. Heilemann

    Berlin : Duncker & Humblot


  • Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Capital Formation

    with Walid Hejazi

    Ottawa : Industry Canada


  • Pricing to Market:Exploring New Export Price Equations for the LINK System

    with B. Gangnes and H.Y. Li

    in: B.G. Hickman and L.R. Klein (eds.) LINK Proceedings 1991/1992 (Singapore : World Scientific Publ.)


    Pages: pp. 331-351

Research and Teaching Interests

Teaches courses at the graduate and undergraduate level in Macroeconomics, International Monetary Economics, Applied Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Monetary Theory and Policy, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Techniques. Current research includes forecast evaluation techniques, learning in econometric models, combination of forecasts, international trade allocation models, taxes, uncertainty and foreign direct investment, trade composition and long-run growth.

Honors and Awards

  • 2010

    Honorary Doctorate, University of Pretoria

  • 1978-1980

    Research Fellowship, German Science Foundation (DFG)

Professional Affiliations/Memberships

  • American Economic Association

  • Econometric Society

Academic / Professional Service

  • 2014-2015


  • 2013-2014

    Interim Dean,

  • 2006-2013

    Vice-Dean, Academic

  • 1995-2006

    Associate Dean, Research and Academic Resources

  • 1989-Present

    Director, Project LINK, University of Toronto

  • 1981-1989

    Associate Director, Project LINK, University of Pennsylvania

  • 1997-2015

    Co-Editor, Economic Modelling

  • 1984-1990

    Editor, Journal of Forecasting

  • Consultant with: United Nations, New York; World Bank, Washington, DC; Commission of European Communities, Brussels; International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC; Asian Development Bank, Manila; UNCTAD, Geneva; CIDA, Ottawa; World Trade Organization, Geneva